Impact of a scalable training program on the quality of colonoscopy performance and risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopist adenoma detection rates (ADRs) vary widely and are associated with patients' risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs). However, few scalable physician-directed interventions demonstrably both improve ADR and reduce PCCRC risk. METHODS: Among patients undergoing colonoscopy, we evaluated the influence of a scalable online training on individual-level ADRs and PCCRC risk. The intervention was a 30-minute, interactive, online training, developed using behavior change theory, to address factors that potentially impede detection of adenomas. Analyses included interrupted time series analyses for pretraining versus posttraining individual-physician ADR changes (adjusted for temporal trends) and Cox regression for associations between ADR changes and patients' PCCRC risk. RESULTS: Across 21 endoscopy centers and all 86 eligible endoscopists, ADRs increased immediately by an absolute 3.13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-4.94) in the 3-month quarter after training compared with .58% per quarter (95% CI, .40-.77) and 0.33% per quarter (95% CI, .16-.49) in the 3-year pretraining and posttraining periods, respectively. Posttraining ADR increases were higher among endoscopists with pretraining ADRs below the median. Among 146,786 posttraining colonoscopies (all indications), each 1% absolute increase in screening ADR posttraining was associated with a 4% decrease in their patients' PCCRC risk (hazard ratio, .96; 95% CI, .93-.99). An ADR increase of ≥10% versus <1% was associated with a 55% reduced risk of PCCRC (hazard ratio, .45; 95% CI, .24-.82). CONCLUSIONS: A scalable, online behavior change training intervention focused on modifiable factors was associated with significant and sustained improvements in ADR, particularly among endoscopists with lower ADRs. These ADR changes were associated with substantial reductions in their patients' risk of PCCRC.

Prescribing for different antibiotic classes across age groups in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population in association with influenza incidence, 2010-2018.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis). We estimated that for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010-2018, 3.4% (2.8%-4%) of all macrolide prescriptions (fills), 2.7% (2.3%-3.2%) of all aminopenicillin prescriptions, 3.1% (2.4%-3.9%) of all 3rd generation cephalosporins prescriptions, 2.2% (1.8%-2.6%) of all protected aminopenicillin prescriptions and 1.3% (1%-1.6%) of all quinolone prescriptions were influenza-associated. The corresponding proportions were higher for select age groups, e.g. 4.3% of macrolide prescribing in ages over 50 years, 5.1% (3.3%-6.8%) of aminopenicillin prescribing in ages 5-17 years and 3.3% (1.9%-4.6%) in ages <5 years was influenza-associated. The relative contribution of influenza to antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication in ages over 5 years was higher than the corresponding relative contribution to prescribing for all diagnoses. Our results suggest a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing prescribing for the five studied antibiotic classes, particularly for macrolides in ages over 50 years and aminopenicillins in ages <18 years, and the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication, both of which may contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

Retrospective cohort study to assess the association between treatment with tocilizumab and mortality among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the association between tocilizumab administration and clinical outcomes among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Large integrated health system with 9 million members in California, USA. PARTICIPANTS: 4185 Kaiser Permanente members hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). INTERVENTIONS: Receipt of tocilizumab within 10 days of initiation of IMV. OUTCOME MEASURES: Using a retrospective cohort of consecutive patients hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonia who required IMV in a large integrated health system in California, USA, we assessed the association between tocilizumab administration and 28-day mortality, time to extubation from IMV and time to hospital discharge. RESULTS: Among 4185 patients, 184 received tocilizumab and 4001 patients did not receive tocilizumab within 10 days of initiation of IMV. After inverse probability weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced between groups. Patients treated with tocilizumab had a similar risk of death in the 28 days after intubation compared with patients not treated with tocilizumab (adjusted HR (aHR), 1.21, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.50), but did have a significantly longer time-to-extubation (aHR 0.71; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.88) and time-to-hospital-discharge (aHR 0.66; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.88). However, patients treated with tocilizumab ≤2 days after initiation of IMV had a similar risk of mortality (aHR 1.47; 95% CI 0.96 to 2.26), but significantly shorter time-to-extubation (aHR 0.37; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.58) and time-to-hospital-discharge (aHR 0.31; 95% CI CI 0.17 to 0.56) compared with patients treated with tocilizumab 3-10 days after initiation of IMV. CONCLUSIONS: Among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 28-day follow-up period was similar, but time-to-extubation and time-to-hospital-discharge were longer in patients who received tocilizumab within 10 days of initiation of IMV compared with patients who did not receive tocilizumab.

Association of Physician Adenoma Detection Rates With Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancer.

Importance: Although colonoscopy is frequently performed in the United States, there is limited evidence to support threshold values for physician adenoma detection rate as a quality metric. Objective: To evaluate the association between physician adenoma detection rate values and risks of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer and related deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in 3 large integrated health care systems (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, and Kaiser Permanente Washington) with 43 endoscopy centers, 383 eligible physicians, and 735 396 patients aged 50 to 75 years who received a colonoscopy that did not detect cancer (negative colonoscopy) between January 2011 and June 2017, with patient follow-up through December 2017. Exposures: The adenoma detection rate of each patient's physician based on screening examinations in the calendar year prior to the patient's negative colonoscopy. Adenoma detection rate was defined as a continuous variable in statistical analyses and was also dichotomized as at or above vs below the median for descriptive analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome (postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer) was tumor registry-verified colorectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed at least 6 months after any negative colonoscopy (all indications). The secondary outcomes included death from postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer. Results: Among 735 396 patients who had 852 624 negative colonoscopies, 440 352 (51.6%) were performed on female patients, median patient age was 61.4 years (IQR, 55.5-67.2 years), median follow-up per patient was 3.25 years (IQR, 1.56-5.01 years), and there were 619 postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers and 36 related deaths during more than 2.4 million person-years of follow-up. The patients of physicians with higher adenoma detection rates had significantly lower risks for postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 per 1% absolute adenoma detection rate increase [95% CI, 0.96-0.98]) and death from postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (HR, 0.95 per 1% absolute adenoma detection rate increase [95% CI, 0.92-0.99]) across a broad range of adenoma detection rate values, with no interaction by sex (P value for interaction = .18). Compared with adenoma detection rates below the median of 28.3%, detection rates at or above the median were significantly associated with a lower risk of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer (1.79 vs 3.10 cases per 10 000 person-years; absolute difference in 7-year risk, -12.2 per 10 000 negative colonoscopies [95% CI, -10.3 to -13.4]; HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.73]) and related deaths (0.05 vs 0.22 cases per 10 000 person-years; absolute difference in 7-year risk, -1.2 per 10 000 negative colonoscopies [95%, CI, -0.80 to -1.69]; HR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.11-0.65]). Conclusions and Relevance: Within 3 large community-based settings, colonoscopies by physicians with higher adenoma detection rates were significantly associated with lower risks of postcolonoscopy colorectal cancer across a broad range of adenoma detection rate values. These findings may help inform recommended targets for colonoscopy quality measures.

Adults hospitalized with breakthrough COVID-19 have lower mortality than matched unvaccinated adults.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) breakthrough infections are common. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by vaccination status using retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We generated propensity scores for receipt of full vaccination in adults requiring supplemental oxygen hospitalized at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1 April 2021 to 30 November 2021) with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction tests. Optimal matching of fully vaccinated/unvaccinated patients was performed comparing in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Of 7305 patients, 1463 (20.0%) were full, 138 (1.9%) were partial, and 5704 (78.1%) were unvaccinated. Fully vaccinated were older than partial or unvaccinated (71.0, 63.0, and 54.0 years, respectively, p < 0.001) with more comorbidities (Comorbidity Point Scores 33.0, 22.0, and 10.0, p < 0.001) and immunosuppressant (11.5%, 8.7%, and 3.0%, p < 0.001) or chemotherapy exposure (2.8%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, p < 0.001). Fewer fully vaccinated patients died compared to matched unvaccinated (9.0% vs. 16.3%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Fully vaccinated patients are less likely to die compared to matched unvaccinated patients.

Antibiotic prescribing across age groups in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population in association with different diagnoses, and with influenza incidence, 2010-2018.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis and otitis media). Here, we estimated age/diagnosis-specific proportions of antibiotic prescriptions (fills) for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010-2018 that were influenza-associated. The proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was higher in children aged 5-17 years compared to children aged under 5 years, ranging from 1.4% [95% CI (0.7-2.1)] in aged <1 year to 2.7% (1.9-3.4) in aged 15-17 years. For adults aged over 20 years, the proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was lower, ranging from 0.7% (0.5-1) for aged 25-29 years to 1.6% (1.2-1.9) for aged 60-64 years. Most of the influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing in children aged under 10 years was for ear infections, while for age groups over 25 years, 45-84% of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing was for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication. This suggests a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing antibiotic prescribing, as well as the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication in persons aged over 25 years, both of which may further contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

Proton Pump Inhibitor Use and Risk of Gastric, Colorectal, Liver, and Pancreatic Cancers in a Community-Based Population.

INTRODUCTION: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly used for gastrointestinal disorders; given they increase the systemic levels of gastrin, a trophic hormone, there is a concern about their carcinogenicity. This study evaluated the association between PPI use and gastrointestinal cancers. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study in a large, community-based integrated healthcare setting. Cases were adults with gastric (n = 1,233), colorectal (n = 18,595), liver (n = 2,329), or pancreatic cancers (n = 567). Each case was matched with up to 10 controls by age, sex, race/ethnicity, medical facility, and enrollment duration. The primary exposure was defined as ≥2-year cumulative PPI supply. Data were obtained from pharmacy, cancer registry, and electronic medical record databases. Associations were evaluated using conditional logistic regression and adjusted for multiple confounders. We also evaluated the cancer risks separately by PPI dose, duration of use, and dose and duration. RESULTS: PPI use of ≥2-years was not associated with the risks of gastric (odds ratio [OR]: 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81-1.42), colorectal (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99-1.12), liver (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 0.91-1.43), or pancreatic cancers (OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.89-1.67), compared to non-users. In exploratory analyses, elevated cancer risks were primarily restricted to those with ≥10 years of PPI use, but no consistent associations were found for increasing PPI dose and/or duration of use. DISCUSSION: PPI use of ≥2 years was not associated with increased risks of gastrointestinal cancers. The cancer risks associated with PPI use of ≥10 years requires further study.

Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death After Adenoma Removal in a Large, Community-based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The long-term risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) and CRC-related death following adenoma removal are uncertain. Data are needed to inform evidence-based surveillance guidelines, which vary in follow-up recommendations for some polyp types. Using data from a large, community-based integrated health care setting, we examined the risks of CRC and related death by baseline colonoscopy adenoma findings. METHODS: Participants at 21 medical centers underwent baseline colonoscopies from 2004 through 2010; findings were categorized as no-adenoma, low-risk adenoma, or high-risk adenoma. Participants were followed until the earliest of CRC diagnosis, death, health plan disenrollment, or December 31, 2017. Risks of CRC and related deaths among the high- and low-risk adenoma groups were compared with the no-adenoma group using Cox regression adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Among 186,046 patients, 64,422 met eligibility criteria (54.3% female; mean age, 61.6 ± 7.1 years; median follow-up time, 8.1 years from the baseline colonoscopy). Compared with the no-adenoma group (45,881 patients), the high-risk adenoma group (7563 patients) had a higher risk of CRC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.87-3.63) and related death (HR 3.94; 95% CI 1.90-6.56), whereas the low-risk adenoma group (10,978 patients) did not have a significant increase in risk of CRC (HR 1.29; 95% CI 0.89-1.88) or related death (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.19-2.18). CONCLUSIONS: With up to 14 years of follow-up, high-risk adenomas were associated with an increased risk of CRC and related death, supporting early colonoscopy surveillance. Low-risk adenomas were not associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC or related deaths. These results can inform current surveillance guidelines for high- and low-risk adenomas.

Inverse probability weighted Cox model in multi-site studies without sharing individual-level data.

The inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model can be used to estimate the marginal hazard ratio. In multi-site studies, it may be infeasible to pool individual-level datasets due to privacy and other considerations. We propose three methods for making inference on hazard ratios without the need for pooling individual-level datasets across sites. The first method requires a summary-level eight-column risk-set table to produce the same hazard ratio estimate and robust sandwich variance estimate as those from the corresponding pooled individual-level data analysis (reference analysis). The second and third methods, which are based on two bootstrap re-sampling strategies, require a summary-level four-column risk-set table and bootstrap-based risk-set tables from each site to produce the same hazard ratio and bootstrap variance estimates as those from their reference analyses. All three methods require only one file transfer between the data-contributing sites and the analysis center. We justify these methods theoretically, illustrate their use, and demonstrate their statistical performance using both simulated and real-world data.

Validity of Privacy-Protecting Analytical Methods That Use Only Aggregate-Level Information to Conduct Multivariable-Adjusted Analysis in Distributed Data Networks.

Distributed data networks enable large-scale epidemiologic studies, but protecting privacy while adequately adjusting for a large number of covariates continues to pose methodological challenges. Using 2 empirical examples within a 3-site distributed data network, we tested combinations of 3 aggregate-level data-sharing approaches (risk-set, summary-table, and effect-estimate), 4 confounding adjustment methods (matching, stratification, inverse probability weighting, and matching weighting), and 2 summary scores (propensity score and disease risk score) for binary and time-to-event outcomes. We assessed the performance of combinations of these data-sharing and adjustment methods by comparing their results with results from the corresponding pooled individual-level data analysis (reference analysis). For both types of outcomes, the method combinations examined yielded results identical or comparable to the reference results in most scenarios. Within each data-sharing approach, comparability between aggregate- and individual-level data analysis depended on adjustment method; for example, risk-set data-sharing with matched or stratified analysis of summary scores produced identical results, while weighted analysis showed some discrepancies. Across the adjustment methods examined, risk-set data-sharing generally performed better, while summary-table and effect-estimate data-sharing more often produced discrepancies in settings with rare outcomes and small sample sizes. Valid multivariable-adjusted analysis can be performed in distributed data networks without sharing of individual-level data.

Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Related Deaths After a Colonoscopy With Normal Findings.

Importance: Guidelines recommend a 10-year rescreening interval after a colonoscopy with normal findings (negative colonoscopy results), but evidence supporting this recommendation is limited. Objective: To examine the long-term risks of colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths after a negative colonoscopy result, in comparison with individuals unscreened, in a large, community-based setting. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in an integrated health care delivery organization serving more than 4 million members across Northern California. A total of 1 251 318 average-risk screening-eligible patients (age 50-75 years) between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2015, were included. The study was concluded on December 31, 2016. Exposures: Screening was examined as a time-varying exposure; all participants contributed person-time unscreened until they were either screened or censored. If the screening received was a negative colonoscopy result, the participants contributed person-time in the negative colonoscopy results group until they were censored. Main Outcomes and Measures: Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the hazard ratios (HRs) for colorectal cancer and related deaths were calculated according to time since negative colonoscopy result (or since cohort entry for those unscreened). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, Charlson comorbidity score, and body mass index. Results: Of the 1 251 318 patients, 613 692 were men (49.0%); mean age was 55.6 (7.0) years. Compared with the unscreened participants, those with a negative colonoscopy result had a reduced risk of colorectal cancer and related deaths throughout the more than 12-year follow-up period, and although reductions in risk were attenuated with increasing years of follow-up, there was a 46% lower risk of colorectal cancer (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.31-0.94) and 88% lower risk of related deaths (hazard ratio, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.02-0.82) at the current guideline-recommended 10-year rescreening interval. Conclusions and Relevance: A negative colonoscopy result in average-risk patients was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer and related deaths for more than 12 years after examination, compared with unscreened patients. Our study findings may be able to inform guidelines for rescreening after a negative colonoscopy result and future studies to evaluate the costs and benefits of earlier vs later rescreening intervals.

Effects of Organized Colorectal Cancer Screening on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Large Community-Based Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little information is available on the effectiveness of organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on screening uptake, incidence, and mortality in community-based populations. METHODS: We contrasted screening rates, age-adjusted annual CRC incidence, and incidence-based mortality rates before (baseline year 2000) and after (through 2015) implementation of organized screening outreach, from 2007 through 2008 (primarily annual fecal immunochemical testing and colonoscopy), in a large community-based population. Among screening-eligible individuals 51-75 years old, we calculated annual up-to-date status for cancer screening (by fecal test, sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy), CRC incidence, cancer stage distributions, and incidence-based mortality. RESULTS: Initiation of organized CRC screening significantly increased the up-to-date status of screening, from 38.9% in 2000 to 82.7% in 2015 (P < .01). Higher rates of screening were associated with a 25.5% reduction in annual CRC incidence between 2000 and 2015, from 95.8 to 71.4 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and a 52.4% reduction in cancer mortality, from 30.9 to 14.7 deaths/100,000 (P < .01). Increased screening was initially associated with increased CRC incidence, due largely to greater detection of early-stage cancers, followed by decreases in cancer incidence. Advanced-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 36.2%, from 45.9 to 29.3 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and early-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 14.5%, from 48.2 to 41.2 cases/100,000 (P < .04). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an organized CRC screening program in a large community-based population rapidly increased screening participation to the ≥80% target set by national organizations. Screening rates were sustainable and associated with substantial decreases in CRC incidence and mortality within short time intervals, consistent with early detection and cancer prevention.

Comparison of privacy-protecting analytic and data-sharing methods: A simulation study.

PURPOSE: Privacy-protecting analytic and data-sharing methods that minimize the disclosure risk of sensitive information are increasingly important due to the growing interest in utilizing data across multiple sources. We conducted a simulation study to examine how avoiding sharing individual-level data in a distributed data network can affect analytic results. METHODS: The base scenario had four sites of varying sizes with 5% outcome incidence, 50% treatment prevalence, and seven confounders. We varied treatment prevalence, outcome incidence, treatment effect, site size, number of sites, and covariate distribution. Confounding adjustment was conducted using propensity score or disease risk score. We compared analyses of three types of aggregate-level data requested from sites: risk-set, summary-table, or effect-estimate data (meta-analysis) with benchmark results of analysis of pooled individual-level data. We assessed bias and precision of hazard ratio estimates as well as the accuracy of standard error estimates. RESULTS: All the aggregate-level data-sharing approaches, regardless of confounding adjustment methods, successfully approximated pooled individual-level data analysis in most simulation scenarios. Meta-analysis showed minor bias when using inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) in infrequent exposure (5%), rare outcome (0.01%), and small site (5,000 patients) settings. SE estimates became less accurate for IPTW risk-set approach with less frequent exposure and for propensity score-matching meta-analysis approach with rare outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found that we can avoid sharing individual-level data and obtain valid results in many settings, although care must be taken with meta-analysis approach in infrequent exposure and rare outcome scenarios, particularly when confounding adjustment is performed with IPTW.

Adverse Selection into and within the Individual Health Insurance Market in California in 2014.

OBJECTIVE: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced reforms to mitigate adverse selection into and within the individual insurance market. We examined the traits and predicted medical spending of enrollees in California post-ACA. DATA SOURCES: Survey of 2,103 enrollees in individual market plans, on- and off-exchange, in 2014. STUDY DESIGN: We compared actual versus potential participants using data from the 2014 California Health Interview Survey on respondents who were individually insured or uninsured. We predicted annual medical spending for each group using age, sex, self-rated health, body mass index, smoking status, and income. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Average predicted spending was similar for actual ($3,377, 95 percent CI [$3,280-$3,474]) and potential participants ($3,257 [$3,060-$3,454]); however, some vulnerable subgroups were underrepresented. On- versus off-exchange enrollees differed in sociodemographic and health traits with modest differences in spending ($3,448 [$3,330-$3,565] vs. $3,175 [$3,012-$3,338]). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence of selection into the overall insurance pool in 2014; however, differences by exchange status reflect the importance of including off-exchange enrollees in analyses and the pool for risk adjustment. California's post-ACA individual market has been a relative success, highlighting the importance of state policies and outreach efforts to encourage participation in the market.

Vaccination Patterns in Children After Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis and in Their Younger Siblings.

Importance: In recent years, rates of vaccination have been declining. Whether this phenomenon disproportionately affects children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or their younger siblings is unknown. Objectives: To investigate if children after receiving an ASD diagnosis obtain their remaining scheduled vaccines according to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations and to compare the vaccination patterns of younger siblings of children with ASD with the vaccination patterns of younger siblings of children without ASD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This investigation was a retrospective matched cohort study. The setting was 6 integrated health care delivery systems across the United States within the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Participants were children born between January 1, 1995, and September 30, 2010, and their younger siblings born between January 1, 1997, and September 30, 2014. The end of follow-up was September 30, 2015. Exposures: Recommended childhood vaccines between ages 1 month and 12 years. Main Outcome and Measure: The proportion of children who received all of their vaccine doses according to ACIP recommendations. Results: The study included 3729 children with ASD (676 [18.1%] female), 592 907 children without ASD, and their respective younger siblings. Among children without ASD, 250 193 (42.2%) were female. For vaccines recommended between ages 4 and 6 years, children with ASD were significantly less likely to be fully vaccinated compared with children without ASD (adjusted rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.88). Within each age category, vaccination rates were significantly lower among younger siblings of children with ASD compared with younger siblings of children without ASD. The adjusted rate ratios varied from 0.86 for siblings younger than 1 year to 0.96 for those 11 to 12 years old. Parents who had a child with ASD were more likely to refuse at least 1 recommended vaccine for that child's younger sibling and to limit the number of vaccines administered during the younger sibling's first year of life. Conclusions and Relevance: Children with ASD and their younger siblings were undervaccinated compared with the general population. The results of this study suggest that children with ASD and their younger siblings are at increased risk of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Prospective Postmarketing Surveillance of Acute Myocardial Infarction in New Users of Saxagliptin: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: The cardiovascular safety of saxagliptin, a dipeptidyl-peptidase 4 inhibitor, compared with other antihyperglycemic treatments is not well understood. We prospectively examined the association between saxagliptin use and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We identified patients aged ≥18 years, starting from the approval date of saxagliptin in 2009 and continuing through August 2014, using data from 18 Mini-Sentinel data partners. We conducted seven sequential assessments comparing saxagliptin separately with sitagliptin, pioglitazone, second-generation sulfonylureas, and long-acting insulin, using disease risk score (DRS) stratification and propensity score (PS) matching to adjust for potential confounders. Sequential testing kept the overall chance of a false-positive signal below 0.05 (one-sided) for each pairwise comparison. RESULTS: We identified 82,264 saxagliptin users and more than 1.5 times as many users of each comparator. At the end of surveillance, the DRS-stratified hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 1.08 (0.90-1.28) in the comparison with sitagliptin, 1.11 (0.87-1.42) with pioglitazone, 0.79 (0.64-0.98) with sulfonylureas, and 0.57 (0.46-0.70) with long-acting insulin. The corresponding PS-matched HRs were similar. Only one interim analysis of 168 analyses met criteria for a safety signal: the PS-matched saxagliptin-pioglitazone comparison from the fifth sequential analysis, which yielded an HR of 1.63 (1.12-2.37). This association diminished in subsequent analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find a higher AMI risk in saxagliptin users compared with users of other selected antihyperglycemic agents during the first 5 years after U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of the drug.

Association Between Time to Colonoscopy After a Positive Fecal Test Result and Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Cancer Stage at Diagnosis.

IMPORTANCE: The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is commonly used for colorectal cancer screening and positive test results require follow-up colonoscopy. However, follow-up intervals vary, which may result in neoplastic progression. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate time to colonoscopy after a positive FIT result and its association with risk of colorectal cancer and advanced-stage disease at diagnosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2014) within Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California. Participants were 70 124 patients aged 50 through 70 years eligible for colorectal cancer screening with a positive FIT result who had a follow-up colonoscopy. EXPOSURES: Time (days) to colonoscopy after a positive FIT result. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk of any colorectal cancer and advanced-stage disease (defined as stage III and IV cancer). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were adjusted for patient demographics and baseline risk factors. RESULTS: Of the 70 124 patients with positive FIT results (median age, 61 years [IQR, 55-67 years]; men, 52.7%), there were 2191 cases of any colorectal cancer and 601 cases of advanced-stage disease diagnosed. Compared with colonoscopy follow-up within 8 to 30 days (n = 27 176), there were no significant differences between follow-up at 2 months (n = 24 644), 3 months (n = 8666), 4 to 6 months (n = 5251), or 7 to 9 months (n = 1335) for risk of any colorectal cancer (cases per 1000 patients: 8-30 days, 30; 2 months, 28; 3 months, 31; 4-6 months, 31; and 7-9 months, 43) or advanced-stage disease (cases per 1000 patients: 8-30 days, 8; 2 months, 7; 3 months, 7; 4-6 months, 9; and 7-9 months, 13). Risks were significantly higher for examinations at 10 to 12 months (n = 748) for any colorectal cancer (OR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.05-2.08]; 49 cases per 1000 patients) and advanced-stage disease (OR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.14-3.42]; 19 cases per 1000 patients) and more than 12 months (n = 747) for any colorectal cancer (OR, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.89-2.68]; 76 cases per 1000 patients) and advanced-stage disease (OR, 3.22 [95% CI, 2.44-4.25]; 31 cases per 1000 patients). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with a positive fecal immunochemical test result, compared with follow-up colonoscopy at 8 to 30 days, follow-up after 10 months was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer and more advanced-stage disease at the time of diagnosis. Further research is needed to assess whether this relationship is causal.

Association Between Influenza Infection and Vaccination During Pregnancy and Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

IMPORTANCE: Maternal infections and fever during pregnancy are associated with increased risk for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). To our knowledge, no study has investigated the association between influenza vaccination during pregnancy and ASD. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between influenza infection and vaccination during pregnancy and ASD risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included 196 929 children born at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010, at a gestational age of at least 24 weeks. EXPOSURES: Data on maternal influenza infection and vaccination from conception date to delivery date, obtained from Kaiser Permanente Northern California inpatient and outpatient databases. Influenza infection was defined by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes or positive influenza laboratory test results. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Clinical diagnoses of ASDs identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes 299.0, 299.8, or 299.9 recorded in Kaiser Permanente Northern California electronic medical records on at least 2 occasions any time from birth through June 2015. RESULTS: Within this cohort of 196 929 children, influenza was diagnosed in 1400 (0.7%) mothers and 45 231 (23%) received an influenza vaccination during pregnancy. The mean (SD) ages of vaccinated and unvaccinated women were 31.6 (5.2) and 30.4 (5.6) years, respectively. A total number of 3101 (1.6%) children were diagnosed with ASD. After adjusting for covariates, we found that maternal influenza infection (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.68-1.58) or influenza vaccination (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21) anytime during pregnancy was not associated with increased ASD risk. In trimester-specific analyses, first-trimester influenza vaccination was the only period associated with increased ASD risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39). However, this association could be due to chance (P = 0.1) if Bonferroni corrected for the multiplicity of hypotheses tested (n = 8). Maternal influenza vaccination in the second or third trimester was not associated with increased ASD risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There was no association between maternal influenza infection anytime during pregnancy and increased ASD risk. There was a suggestion of increased ASD risk among children whose mothers received an influenza vaccination in their first trimester, but the association was not statistically significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons, indicating that the finding could be due to chance. These findings do not call for changes in vaccine policy or practice, but do suggest the need for additional studies on maternal influenza vaccination and autism.

Risk for Hospitalized Heart Failure Among New Users of Saxagliptin, Sitagliptin, and Other Antihyperglycemic Drugs: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent postmarketing trials produced conflicting results about the risk for hospitalized heart failure (hHF) associated with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, creating uncertainty about the safety of these antihyperglycemic agents. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of hHF with saxagliptin and sitagliptin. DESIGN: Population-based, retrospective, new-user cohort study. SETTING: 18 health insurance and health system data partners in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Mini-Sentinel program. PATIENTS: Patients aged 18 years or older with type 2 diabetes who initiated therapy with saxagliptin, sitagliptin, pioglitazone, second-generation sulfonylureas, or long-acting insulin products from 2006 to 2013. MEASUREMENTS: Hospitalized HF, identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes 402.x1, 404.x1, 404.x3, and 428.xx recorded as the principal discharge diagnosis. RESULTS: 78 553 saxagliptin users and 298 124 sitagliptin users contributed an average of 7 to 9 months of follow-up data to 1 or more pairwise comparisons. The risk for hHF was not higher with DPP-4 inhibitors than with the other study drugs. The hazard ratios from the disease risk score (DRS)-stratified analyses were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.99) for saxagliptin versus sitagliptin, 0.63 (CI, 0.47 to 0.85) for saxagliptin versus pioglitazone, 0.69 (CI, 0.54 to 0.87) for saxagliptin versus sulfonylureas, and 0.61 (CI, 0.50 to 0.73) for saxagliptin versus insulin. The DRS-stratified hazard ratios were 0.74 (CI, 0.64 to 0.85) for sitagliptin versus pioglitazone, 0.86 (CI, 0.77 to 0.95) for sitagliptin versus sulfonylureas, and 0.71 (CI, 0.64 to 0.78) for sitagliptin versus insulin. Results from the 1:1 propensity score-matched analyses were similar. Results were also similar in subgroups of patients with and without prior cardiovascular disease and in a subgroup defined by the 2 highest DRS deciles. LIMITATION: Residual confounding and short follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this large cohort study, a higher risk for hHF was not observed in users of saxagliptin or sitagliptin compared with other selected antihyperglycemic agents. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Food and Drug Administration.